Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Zhone Turnaround a Buying Opportunity ZHNE

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As a communications network equipment manufacturer, Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) was one of the most well-funded tech start-ups of all time when it was incorporated in 1999 in the midst of the technology boom.

However, after the failure of many dot.coms killed demand for networking equipment, a planned IPO in 2000 had to be scraped.  The company then took its current form in 2003 after it was acquired by Tellium, but retained the Zhone name.

After several years of losses, ZHNE turned profitable this year with cost cuts, continued acceptance of the company’s core products, and less price competition from Chinese manufactures all driving the improvement. This return to profitability has led to strong gains so far in 2013, but I see more upside potential ahead as the company continues its turnaround story.

Much of the company’s success this year has been driven by its flagship MXK IP Multi-Service Terabit Access Concentrator (MXK) and multiple new Optical Line Terminal (OLT) and outdoor units in late 2009.

Management believes these products, along with its mature single-level multi service (SLMS) architecture offerings, allows its carrier service customers to offer new services that are essential for their revenue growth, such as Internet-based entertainment and  the convergence of voice, data and video.

In 2012, ZHNE shipped more than 2,200 MXK systems to new and existing customers globally. It now has over 4,400 total MXK units deployed at over 150 service providers in more than 40 countries.

But ZHNE isn’t stopping there. A critical new product for the company is its FiberLAN (Local Area Network) Optical LAN Solution. The company believes that FiberLAN is the most cost-effective, efficient, and environmentally-friendly alternative to traditional copper-based Ethernet switches on the market today. That may not mean much to you and me, but it is an attractive product to the wireless operators ZHNE serves. FiberLAN offers superior bandwidth and connectivity as new cloud computing environments continue to restrict clogged LAN arteries. The company has just started shipping this product, but believes it is already being well received by customers and could generate $20-$40 million in revenues next year.

With carrier and cable competition providing growing triple play services (including high-speed Internet access and television, plus telephone) in individual residences, ZHNE believes that fiber in these home products will provide the best experience and become standard. Just this week, the company introduced a new digital subscriber line access multiplexer, called DSLAM. The product comes in a compact form that makes it ideal for deploying fiber in home products while providing very strong triple play services.

Zhone offers all these products to a widespread customer base, as 750 network providers on six continents have deployed its products. Domestic revenues accounted for 44% of the total revenues in 2012, followed by Europe, Middle East and Asia (30%), Latin America (24%), and Asia Pacific (2%).

ZHNE Back on Track

After years of inconsistent sales, declining margins and operating losses, Zhone turned a fourth-quarter profit last year of $805,000, with EPS of 2 cents per share strictly on lower operating expenses. Sales and gross profit in the quarter declined 15% and 13%, respectively.

However, results have been much more robust here in 2013. Through the first nine months of the year, revenues have grown 1%, but a better price margin allowed gross margins to increase significantly to 37.8% from 29.7%, and the company realized EPS of 9 cents a share versus a loss of 31 cents a year ago.

It should be noted that sales growth accelerated in the third quarter, with sales up 5% to $30.5 million. In addition, gross profit margins increased to 37.8% from 28.2%, and operating expenses continued to decline, which led to earnings of 5 cents a share versus a loss of 14 cents per share a year ago. Furthermore, management guided the fourth quarter to be the best of the year, so we could see improvement over not only last year’s first fourth-quarter profit of 2 cents per share, but also the 5 cents per share earned in the third.

After years of struggles, ZHNE has turned its business model around and is in a good position to keep growing. Management believes the better pricing environment will stick, and its exciting new product offerings are helping the company change with an evolving tech environment. If FiberLAN produces the $20-$40 million in sales management expects next year, it would represent a significant add-on to the $120 million in revenues the company should achieve in 2013.

Zhone also has a strong balance sheet, with $67.2 million of assets versus only $32.8 million of total liabilities. This nearly $35 million of net current assets could help finance an acquisition of the company, which has total market capitalization of just $120 million. It is also a potential acquisition target, as larger networking players may be interested in gaining its new technology.

I strongly recommend building your position in ZHNE slowly over time.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Which Shoe Stock Can Run Farthest?

Two of the biggest shoe companies available to investors, Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK  ) and Wolverine Worldwide (NYSE: WWW  ) , have experienced great growth in recent periods, with the former posting a 20% stock gain on the day it released earnings last week. Both companies have made fantastic accretive brand purchases and renovations over the past year, and both should continue to grow at appealing rates. Unfortunately for investors, both also appear to be fully valued stocks. The question for investors going forward regards whether the companies' phenomenal successes can sustain the lofty valuations imparted by an ever-myopic market.

Two pair
Deckers is up roughly 140% over the past 12 months. Wolverine is up just 40%. Deckers is the company behind brands such as Ugg, Teva, Sanuk, and more. Wolverine holds on to names such as Sperry Top-Sider and Saucony.

In their recent releases, Deckers remained the outperformer, with a more than $0.20 per share premium to the Street's earnings estimates. Still, Wolverine was no slouch with a 60% year-over-year gain in its most recent earnings.

In the past 12 months, Deckers has benefited from its Hoka One One acquisition, while Wolverine saw the bulk of its gains come from the newly acquired Collective Brands (Sperry, Saucony, and Keds). Both businesses recently raised their full-year earnings guidance.

You get the picture -- both of these companies are putting their best feet forward. For investors, though, rich valuations put the onus on the companies to keep outperforming.

Good for the distance?
At around 17 times forward earnings each, the market appears to find both stocks' growth worthy of a premium. Deckers holds an EV/EBITDA of just under 10 times, while Wolverine is more than doubled at 22 times. The reason for the latter's tremendous premium on an enterprise value basis is due to the size of the Collective Brands acquisition, where the company took on hundreds upon millions of debt in the $1.24 billion buyout. To management's credit, the company has used its newly energized cash flows to decrease the debt load materially.

Deckers has a negligible long-term debt load at under $30 million. A cleaner balance sheet is typically the more attractive pick (all else constant), but Deckers is also only set to grow its earnings by 10% in the current fiscal year. Paying such a hefty premium today is difficult to stomach, since the stock has little headroom in the case of turbulence.

Ultimately, even with the fantastic brand names and appealing growth set forward, Wolverine may not be able to deliver as much of that additional cash flow to investors as Deckers can. On the other hand, Deckers likely won't grow as fast as Wolverine -- a forecast evident in the company's PEG ratio of 2.09 (Wolverine's is 1).

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In one way or another, both businesses are a bit richly valued and investors must be deeply convinced of long-term growth prospects before taking a position in either stock.

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Sunday, October 27, 2013

New York will stockpile gas to prevent storm outages

sandy ny gas lines

Lines outside some gas stations stretched for miles.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) New York will store 3 million gallons of fuel in an emergency reserve to prevent outages like those during Superstorm Sandy one year ago.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Saturday announced the state would create a Strategic Gasoline Reserve -- a $10 million pilot program that includes tanks for the fuel on Long Island. Should outages occur in an emergency elsewhere, the gas could be delivered, he said.

It's being called the first such state-based fuel reserve in the nation.

Lines outside of gas stations stretched for miles in the tri-state area after the fatal late-October storm slammed the East Coast and left millions without power. Portions of New York and New Jersey rationed gas as people mobbed stations seeking fuel for vehicles and generators. Emergency responders also found themselves without enough fuel.

Four days after the storm hit, AAA estimated between 60% and 65% of gas stations in the region were not operational.

Many stations were left without power to pump the gas from underground tanks. Others ran out of fuel, and some resupply efforts were hindered by traffic jams. In June, Cuomo announced $17 million to help more gas stations install the emergency generators.

His office said in a similar emergency, "gasoline from the reserve will be released to meet fuel needs while the industry recovers from a disruption in routine operations."

A contract with Northville Industries, the private company slated to store the fuel, needs to be finalized, the governor's office said. To top of page

Friday, October 25, 2013

FX Energy is Knocking on the Door. Time to Answer It (FXEN)

If it seems like you've heard the market buzzing about FX Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FXEN) quite a bit of late, you're not crazy - it's been in the spotlight a little more than usual over the past few weeks. And for good reason. FXEN shares are about to explode higher. All they need is the right nudge. More on that in a second.

For those not familiar with the company (and statistically speaking, there are plenty of people in that category), FX Energy is an independent oil and gas explorer. The $190 million company has generated $37.5 million in revenue over the past twelve months, and lost $22 million in the process of generating those crude-oil sales.

It's not impressive. Then again, the trailing numbers were never the point. The FXEN 'story' is the potential of the three wells the company is working on in Poland, which to put it mildly, have been underestimated and not even started to be factored into the stock's value until very recently. There's a lot more ground to cover before shares hit their appropriate value.

The details of the Polish opportunity are too numerous and too complex to hash out here. Interested investors can explore that information at the company's project-detail page by going here, if the phrase "there's a lot of gas down there" won't suffice. The details are also not necessary for our purposes.

See, FXEN is a scenario in which we have to trust that the story the chart is telling us is an accurate and fair reflection of the progress the underlying company is making (and just for the record, the market's usually - even if unconsciously - right). So what's the chart of FX Energy Inc. telling us at this point? Like the company's stream of press releases suggests, the explorer is in a transition, from a situation that's got more risk than reward to a situation that's got more reward than risk.

And that transition is about to put the pedal to the metal.

Since April - and for the first time in a long time - FXEN has made a string of higher lows (red). Were it just higher lows over the span of a few months, it might be dismissible. But, these higher lows came during a time when the stock put decided and repeated pressure on the 200-day moving average line (green) as a ceiling. Were it just one or two brushes of the key long-term moving average line, it might too be dismissible. But, the bulls continue to test the water, and they've kept their toes dipped in the pool over the past couple of weeks.

Conclusion? The market's ready to be bullish here. Traders are looking for a reason and way to be bullish. Nobody wants to be the first to take the next - and big - step above a key technical ceiling. None of the would-be buyers are backing down, however. It's going to happen.

What's interesting, in a bullish way, is how this new bullishness has coincided with clear and tangible progress from FX Energy, Inc. over the past few weeks. If you believe there's any oil and gas in Poland at all - and history says there is - then this is more a matter of "if" than "when". Time to take a swing.

If you'd like to receive more trading ideas and insights like this one, you want to subscribe to the free daily SmallCap Network e-newsletter.
 

What's a tweet worth? Twitter sets IPO price

twitter, social media, ipo, facebook Bloomberg News

Twitter Inc. is seeking as much as $1.4 billion in the largest Internet initial public offering since Facebook Inc., betting that it can convince investors of its ability to turn 500 million tweets a day into profits.

Twitter plans to sell 70 million shares at $17 to $20 each in the offering, according to a regulatory filing Thursday. That would value Twitter at $10.9 billion at the top end of the range, based on the 544.7 million common shares that will be outstanding after the IPO.

“They're picking a slightly lower valuation to ensure that the IPO goes up on the first day of trading,” said Francis Gaskins, president of IPODesktop.com. “I would definitely buy them in the offering at this valuation.”

The six-year-old short-messaging site, which draws more than 230 million monthly active users and has transformed the way people communicate, is taking advantage of renewed appetite for social-media stocks to sell a 13% stake. While the company has more than doubled revenue every year, it hasn't yet turned a profit and the pace of user gains is slowing. Still, chief executive Dick Costolo is betting the service's popularity on mobile phones will help lure advertisers.

SILICON VALLEY'S TAKE

Twitter is aiming to avoid the fate of Facebook, whose stock fell below its $38 debut price after its record $16 billion Internet IPO in May 2012 before finally rallying to close above that level in August.

For Silicon Valley, a successful Twitter IPO will go a long way toward erasing the aftertaste from Facebook's IPO, which along with the poor stock market performances of Web companies like Zynga Inc. and Groupon Inc., dented confidence in consumer Internet companies.

Following those offerings, venture capitalists and others shifted investing dollars to technology businesses that sold their products to other businesses, said Nihal Mehta, founder of LocalResponse Inc. and a venture capitalist at Eniac Ventures. Now with Twitter's debut and Facebook trading above its offering price, confidence in consumer technology has revived.

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“Twitter will help escalate all the other advertising-based consumer companies, and create potential for more to be born,” Mr. Mehta said. “We're seeing more consumer deals than we ever have before.”

BOOSTING SOCIAL MEDIA

Twitter's average revenue per user is less than half Facebook's, regulatory filings show. The service had an monthly average of 231.7 million active users in the three-month period through September, up 39% from the year-earlier period. That compares with 65% growth the prior year.With the money from the offering, Twitter may seek to expand globally and prove it can draw advertisers to the network. Advertisers can sponsor one of the service's 140-character posts, paying to have it show up on users' feeds even if they don't follow the company.

About three-fourths of Twitter's most active users accessed the service from mobile devices in the third quarter, compared with 69% in the year-earlier period, filings show. More than 70% of advertising revenue comes from those devices, a higher proportion than Facebook's.

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is the lead underwriter of the IPO, joined by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Allen & Co. and Code Advisors. Twitter has said it will list on the New York Stock Exchange and trade under the symbol TWTR.

Co-founder Evan Williams' stake will drop to 10.4% from 12% after the offering, the filing shows. He's the single biggest individual stockholder.

(Bloomberg News) Like what you've read?

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Why Netflix (NFLX) Reversed Its Overnight Gains

Updated from 5:08 p.m. EDT to disclose Carl Icahn's updated position on Netflix in second paragraph. 

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings warned against "momentum investor-fueled euphoria" in the company's third-quarter shareholder letter and investors took note. High-momentum stocks slipped to close lower on Tuesday but none so far as Netflix, which only 6 hours earlier was soaring to record heights on solid third-quarter earnings.

And the day went from bad to worse as billionaire investor Carl Icahn disclosed he unloaded 2.4 million shares, cutting his stake in the company to 4.52% from the 10% in his portfolio a year earlier. In an SEC filing, the reason given for Icahn partial exit of his investment was "in view of the 457% increase in the price of those shares since the original investment".

In after-hours trading, shares slumped 2.2% to $315.50. Shares of the streaming service tumbled 9.2% to $322.52, shedding $65.32 since market open. During the day, 25.51 million shares changed hands, seven times the stock's average three-month daily volume of 3.5 million. Investors were taking their profits, despite third-quarter earnings of 52 cents a share that beat analyst expectations by three cents in a Thomson Reuters survey. Netflix said it ended the quarter with more than 40 million members, up from less than 30 million a year earlier. A possible contribution to fears was the degree to which the 1.4 million new international members were the result of "low quality free trials" in Latin America and how this could affect long-term member totals and profitability. The international unit lost $74 million in the quarter, compared to $92 million in the year-ago quarter. The Los Gatos, Calif.-based company anticipates a loss of $65 million in the fourth quarter. Separately, CEO Reed Hastings said in a conference call that Netflix was still uninterested in hosting sports content, quashing rumors of a partnership with the NFL. "All [our] attributes are on-demand and I don't think that brings much to sports viewing which is primarily a linear experience," he said. In ratings, Jefferies reiterated its "underperform" rating, pointing to "the risks of rising content costs, heavy competition, and the likelihood Netflix may need to raise additional capital to fund operations" to explain its bearish outlook. Cantor Fitzgerald kept its "hold" rating with a price target of $350 as "current valuation keeps us on the sidelines", while Oppenheimer raised its price target to $434 from $259 and maintained a "perform" rating on valuation concerns. '"It looks like there is a wholesale onslaught on everything that's going up endlessly," warns Jim Cramer in his recent Real Money analysis. "This is day one and we know reversals last several days."  TheStreet Ratings team rates Netflix Inc as a Hold with a ratings score of C. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about its recommendation: "We rate Netflix Inc (NFLX) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed -- some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, expanding profit margins and good cash flow from operations. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including disappointing return on equity, premium valuation and generally higher debt management risk." You can view the full analysis from the report here: NFLX Ratings Report X

Sunday, October 20, 2013

World peace breaks out! What’s next?

The Beltway bickering continued to the 11th hour, shockingly enough, before a budget compromise was reached and the debt ceiling was raised, at least for the time being; the stock market discounted that drama as the Standard & Poor's 500 rallied 2% for the week — and 5% since Oct. 9 — notching all-time highs.

There was a contingent on Wall Street — present company included — who felt that traders would sell the news, but that quickly gave way to the performance anxiety sweeping the Street into year-end. When managing other people's money, it's OK to lose as long as others lose more, but anathema to make money if others make more.

With 20% of the S&P 500 reporting third-quarter earnings, 55% beat top-line revenue estimates and 71% beat EPS estimates. In the financial sector, the common theme was weakness in fixed income revenues, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup seeing a sharp drop-off in trading activity.

Sexy sirens continue to lure investors into equities where the common belief is that the Bernanke "call." replaced the Greenspan "put." While we may not have "irrational exuberance," signs of excess litter the landscape: Google and Priceline trade at $1,000, social media stocks are parabolic, and the S&P 500's 2014 earnings estimate is $120 coming out of a technical recession and on the back of a 160% rally since March 2009. The phrase "caveat emptor" comes to mind.

Hot Blue Chip Companies To Buy For 2014

The earnings avalanche continues next week, and includes Netflix, McDonald's, Coach, Boeing, Caterpillar, AT&T, Dow Chemical, Ford, Microsoft, and Amazon. Apple will release the next version of the iPad on Tuesday, and the EU summit starts Thursday, with investors hoping the union will strengthen its policy coordination and increase regulatory safeguards.

More from Minyanville:

Updates: S&P 500, IBM, and U.S. dollar

! Stocks likely to bob and weave for another two weeks

The next Apple Inc. event: What can we expect?

The most important variable governing market price

Twitter: Huge Q3 revenue growth paves the way for a super IPO

This story was originally published on Minyanville. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Music Service, Mobile Software Expected From Apple

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) is switching from its decade-long practice of naming its Mac operating system updates after big cats. Instead, it's paying homage to the geography of its home state.

Apple software head Craig Federighi says the next version of Mac OS X will be called "Mavericks," after an undersea rock formation that produces big waves near Half Moon Bay, Calif.

The new operating system will extend battery life and shorten boot-up times, Federighi told the audience at the Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco on Monday. The system improves support for multiple displays and imports the "tab" concept from Web browsers to the Finder file-organizer.

The software update will include "iBooks" for the first time, giving people who buy e-books from Apple a way to display them on the computer screen in addition to the iPhone and iPad. Competing e-book vendors such as Amazon and Barnes & Noble have cross-platform applications already.

There have been nine OS X versions named after big cats. The latest was "Mountain Lion," released last year.

"We do not want to be the first software release in history to be delayed by a lack of cats," Federighi joked.

He said the new software will be out in the fall.

Apple also revealed a complete revamp of the Mac Pro, the boxy desktop model that's the work horse of graphics and film professionals. The new model is a black cylinder, one eighth the volume of the old box.

The current Mac Pro is the only Mac with internal hardware that can easily be modified and expanded by the user, but that possibility disappears with the new model. The company is adopting the same compact, one-piece design present in the Mac Mini and iMac.

The new Mac Pro will be the first Mac to be assembled in the U.S. in many years. CEO Tim Cook promised last year that the company would start a production line in the U.S., but didn't say where.

The new computer will launch later this year, Schiller said.

Apple is also expected to reveal a digital radio service and changes to the software behind iPhones and iPads at the conference.

For the iPhones and iPads, speculation has been that Apple would simplify and freshen up the graphic look. If the speculation is correct, it would be the most radical design change since the iPhone made its debut in 2007, showing consumers that phones could do much more than make calls and exchange messages.

This week's event comes at an important time for Apple. The company's stock price has fallen amid concerns that another breakthrough product isn't imminent. Although CEO Tim Cook has said people shouldn't expect new products until the fall, Apple is likely to preview how future products will function in its unveiling of new services and features.

Monday's highlight is expected to be an updated version of iOS, the software that runs iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches. It will be called iOS 7 and will come with new devices expected to go on sale this fall. Owners of recent models such as last fall's iPhone 5 will likely be eligible for free upgrades.

Icons in iOS now have a three-dimensional look that tries to mimic the real-world counterparts of certain apps. For instance, the icon for the Notes app looks like a yellow notepad and the Contacts app is represented by a leather-bound address book. The speculation is that Apple will do away with that theme in iOS 7. Instead, icons will look plain and simple, offering more consistency from app to app. The new design is likely to favor black and white elements rather than splashes of color.

While design modifications could help Apple distinguish its devices from rival phones and tablets, they risk alienating longtime users.

Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) radical makeover of the Windows operating system in October was meant to give the company a stronger presence on tablet computers, but it ended up confusing many people who had become accustomed to using the old operating system on traditional desktops and laptops. IDC blamed Windows 8 for accelerating a decline in PC sales.

Apple riled users of its gadgets last fall when it kicked out a beloved app using Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) mapping service and replaced it with its own Maps app. Travelers complained of misplaced landmarks, overlooked towns, and other problems. What was supposed to be a triumph for Apple served to underscore Google's strength in maps. Apple CEO Tim Cook issued a rare public apology and promised improvements.

Apple may use iOS 7 as an opportunity to update its Maps app. Other features in iOS 7 may include new ways to do things through gesture commands.

Apple is also expected to debut a streaming music service dubbed iRadio.

Apple is a pioneer in digital music sales. The debut of its iTunes music store in 2003 gave people an easy, legal way to obtain music for their iPods. Apple persuaded the major recording companies to join its efforts as a way to thwart online piracy. What started with a catalog of about 200,000 songs has grown to tens of millions today. The iTunes store is now the leading U.S. retailer of music.

With iTunes, people buy songs or albums to download to computers, phones and tablets. But streaming services such as Pandora (NYSE: P  ) and Spotify have emerged as popular alternatives for listening to music. Pandora relies on its users being connected to the Internet at all times and plays songs at random within certain genres for free. The service is supported by advertising. It is the most similar service to the one Apple is expected to announce Monday. The difference is that Apple is expected to feature a seamless way for listeners to purchase songs through iTunes.

The announcement could further cement Apple as a leader in digital music and cut into Pandora's status as the most-listened-to Internet radio service.

But Apple faces a new type of competition that it didn't have when it debuted iTunes. Rival Google started an on-demand subscription music service called All Access last month. The service joins Spotify, Rhapsody, and others that give subscribers the ability to pick and choose specific songs and albums from a catalog of millions for playback on computers, tablets and smartphones. Such services allow songs to be saved on mobile devices for playback outside of Internet connectivity as long as the user keeps paying a monthly fee -- usually $10 a month in the U.S.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

21 Commercial Banking Stocks to Buy Now

RSS Logo Portfolio Grader Popular Posts: 7 “Triple A” Stocks to Buy7 Biotechnology Stocks to Buy Now16 Oil and Gas Stocks to Sell Now Recent Posts: 8 Biotechnology Stocks to Sell Now 7 Semiconductor Stocks to Sell Now 21 Commercial Banking Stocks to Buy Now View All Posts

The grades of 21 Commercial Banking stocks are better this week, according to the Portfolio Grader database. Every one of these stocks has an “A” (“strong buy”) or “B” overall (“buy”) rating.

Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ:) is bettering its rating of C (“hold”) from last week to a B (“buy”) this week. Pinnacle Financial Partners is a holding company for Pinnacle National Bank. In Portfolio Grader’s specific subcategory of Earnings Revisions, PNFP also gets an A. The stock price has risen 8.3% over the past month, better than the 1.3% decrease the Nasdaq has seen over the same period of time. .

This week, Taylor Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:) is showing good progress as the company’s rating jumps from a B (“buy”) last week to an A (“strong buy”). Taylor Capital Group is a bank holding company for Cole Taylor Bank. .

BSB Bancorp, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:) ratings are looking better this week, moving up to a B from last week’s C. BSB Bancorp operates as a bank holding company. .

BNC Bancorp (NASDAQ:) shows solid improvement this week. The company’s rating rises from a C to a B. BNC Bancorp offers products and services to individuals and small- to medium-sized local businesses. .

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:) earns a B this week, jumping up from last week’s grade of C. Wells Fargo provides financial services in mainly wholesale banking, mortgage banking, consumer finance, equipment leasing, agricultural finance and commercial finance. .

PacWest Bancorp (NASDAQ:) improves from a C to a B rating this week. PacWest Bancorp is the holding company for Pacific Western Bank. Wall Street seems to agree with the upgrade and has propelled the stock up 8.7% over the past month. .

This is a strong week for U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:). The company’s rating climbs to B from the previous week’s C. U.S. Bancorp provides banking and financial services. .

Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:) is seeing ratings go up from a C last week to a B this week. Huntington Bancshares is a multi-state bank holding company. .

Independent Bank Corp. (NASDAQ:) boosts its rating from a C to a B this week. Independent Bank is the holding company for Rockland Trust. .

The rating of First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:) moves up this week, rising from a C to a B. First Financial Bankshares is a multi-bank holding company. .

Pacific Continental Corporation (NASDAQ:) gets a higher grade this week, advancing from a B last week to an A. Pacific Continental Bank is a bank holding company that provides commercial banking, financing, and mortgage lending in parts of Washington state and Oregon. .

This week, First Community Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:) pushes up from a C to a B rating. First Community Bancshares is the holding company for First Community Bank. Wall Street has pushed the stock higher by 7.9% over the past month. .

This week, Bryn Mawr Bank Corporation’s (NASDAQ:) ratings are up from a C last week to a B. Bryn Mawr Bank offers a full range of personal and business banking services. .

The rating of Banco de Chile Sponsored ADR (NYSE:) moves up this week, rising from a C to a B. NonactiveBanco de Chile provides a wide customer base of individuals and corporations with general banking services. At present, the stock has a dividend yield of 3.3%. .

This is a strong week for BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:). The company’s rating climbs to B from the previous week’s C. BOK Financial provides a range of financial services to commercial and industrial customers, other financial institutions, and consumers in the United States. .

Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:) gets a higher grade this week, advancing from a C last week to a B. Glacier Bancorp is a regional multi-bank holding company providing commercial financial services to individuals and corporations. Investors seem to agree with the upgraded status of the stock, and have pushed the stock up 6.5% over the past month. .

Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:) ratings are looking better this week, moving up to a B from last week’s C. Washington Trust offers a range of financial services to individuals and businesses, including wealth management. Investors have pushed the stock price up 7.2% over the past month. .

First Connecticut Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:) shows solid improvement this week. The company’s rating rises from a C to a B. First Connecticut Bancorp operates as the holding company for Farmington Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services to businesses, individuals, and governments in central Connecticut. Wall Street seems to agree with the upgrade and has propelled the stock up 7.5% over the past month. .

First Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:) improves from a B to an A rating this week. South Carolina Bank and Trust is a bank holding company that provides retail and commercial banking, mortgage lending, consumer finance loans, and trust and investment services. .

This week, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:) pushes up from a C to a B rating. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a global financial institution that serves clients through CIBC retail markets and wholesale banking. The stock’s dividend yield is 3.6%. .

The Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:) boosts its rating from a C to a B this week. Bank of Nova Scotia offers various personal, commercial, corporate, and investment banking services in Canada and internationally. The current dividend yield is 2.4%. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Earnings roundup: Coke fizzy, Schwab soars

Charles Schwab stock soared in Tuesday afternoon trading after announcing that its third-quarter net income climbed 19%.

Trading and interest revenue also rose, beating analysts' forecasts.

Schwab's active broker accounts grew 3% from a year ago, to nine million. Revenue rose 14% to $1.37 billion from $1.2 billion. Wall Street was looking for $1.34 billion in revenue.

Shares climbed 5% on the news, with the stock at its highest level in more than five years.

TUESDAY STOCKS: How markets performed

Also up, by lesser amounts, were Dow Jones industrial average members Coca Cola and Johnson & Johnson.

Banking giant Citigroup missed analysts estimates, notching earnings of $1.02 a share, under the $1.04 estimate, on revenue of $17.9 billion.

Profit was up at Coke as the world's biggest beverage maker managed to sell more of its drinks despite choppy economic conditions.

The maker of Sprite, Powerade and Vitaminwater in addition to its namesake brand, said global sales volume edged up 2%, helped by its performance in countries such as China, India and Russia.

Still, the Atlanta company conceded that it was facing an economic slowdown in many parts of the world including Mexico, where the government is also considering a tax on sugary soft drinks.

In a conference call with analysts, CEO Muhtar Kent pushed back at the suggestion that the company's days of growth were coming to an end. He noted that the company is emphasizing affordability and smaller packages to "keep the drinkers base growing" in developing markets.

The company said its namesake brand saw volume growth of 22% in India. In China, soft drink volume rose 8%.

Johnson & Johnson benefited from a big jump in prescription drug sales and continued recovery of its consumer health business. Those successes helped the health care giant overcome a new problem, slumping sales of its medical devices.

That was mainly due to pricing pressure in the U.S. that forced J&J to ! cut prices for devices including diabetes testing products and spine and hip replacement parts, and trouble integrating part of the product line and sales force of orthopedic products maker Synthes, bought last year for $20 billion in J&J's biggest acquisition ever.

Stock of the New Brunswick, N.J.-based company is near its 52-week high of $94.42.

J&J said Tuesday that net income was $2.98 billion. Excluding one-time charges, it earned $1.36 per share, 4 cents better than analysts expected.

"We are still seeing (health care) utilization rates that are essentially flat year over year," Chief Financial Officer Dominic Caruso told analysts on a conference call.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Monday, October 14, 2013

Insiders Are Buying These 3 Dividend Beasts

By: Jake Mann

In search of dividend stocks, there are many ways to parse down the data. Searching for high yielders with rock bottom payout ratios is one way to find promising dividend growth stocks. We can also find interesting investing ideas by selecting long-term dividend stocks-those that have raised dividends in 50 or more consecutive years-with multiple insiders buying over the past six months.

Diebold

Security and services company Diebold (DBD) is simply a dividend beast. It has raised dividends in 60 consecutive years and currently offers a yield of 3.8%. Over the past three months, two insiders, CEO Andreas Mattes and VP John Kristoff, have bought Diebold stock. Mattes currently owns about $824K worth of the stock while Kristoff's position is a bit smaller, and in the entire year of 2013, Board members Rajesh Soin and Henry Wallace have also initiated purchases here.

With four unique executives buying in the calendar year and two of these taking place very recently, Diebold is in an attractive spot. Multiple empirical studies show that insider activity like this is the best for piggyback investors to pay attention to (learn how some insider trades beat the market).

Since Mattes' most recent buy in late August, shares of Diebold are up 6%, above the Dow and S&P by a little over two percentage points. Shares aren't overly expensive at current levels and sell-side analysts expect earnings to grow by more than 40% next year. So, if you're not already collecting Diebold dividend checks, you've got one more quarter to get in before the company likely makes it 61 consecutive years of dividend hikes.

American States Water

American States Water (AWR), meanwhile, is another dividend giant that has seen bullish insider activity of late. The Western US-focused water utilities company has raised dividends in 59 straight years and currently offers a yield of 2.9%. Somewhat astoundingly, American's payout ratio (47%) is still below its industry's average (59%),! so the dividend growth doesn't look set to end anytime soon.

In 2013, investors have been appreciating American States Water's stock to the tune of a 13.4% gain year-to-date, as many pundits expect a higher level of water infrastructure spending to provide a nice tailwind behind the company's bottom line. Like Diebold, Wall Street expects American States Water to experience solid earnings growth of over 25% this year, and a whopping four company directors have bought stock in the last six months.

The full list of these transactions is here, but it's worth noting that since James McNulty's buy in early September, shares have risen 8.3%. In other words, American States Water has beaten the Dow by six percentage points in a little over a month. These insiders have to be very happy with their purchases.

Cincinnati Financial

Cincinnati Financial (CINF), lastly, is an under-covered insurance company that has grown dividends in 53 straight years. The stock pays a yield of 3.5% at a modest payout of 47% of earnings, and in 2013, it has appreciated by more than 20%. Three Cincinnati Financial insiders-one director, a senior VP and the company's CFO-have bought shares in the past six months. CFO Michael Sewell initiated the biggest transaction of the bunch when he bought $147K worth of the stock in the last few days of July.

Going forward, Cincinnati Financial's valuation looks neither cheap nor expensive, while cash flow and earnings growth should lead to another year of dividend growth in 2014. In its first two quarters of 2013, the insurer has beaten analysts' EPS expectations by an average margin of 30%, driven by solid premium growth and diminished catastrophe losses.

In addition to the recent string of insider purchases, a ton of elite hedge fund managers (see the full list here) were buying Cincinnati Financial in the latest round of 13F filings, including Glen Russell Dubin, Paul Tudor Jones, Murray Stahl, Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin. There's a lot of support from all ! facets of! the "smart money" here.

Source: Insiders Are Buying These 3 Dividend Beasts

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Business relationship disclosure: This article is written by Insider Monkey's writer, Jake Mann, and edited by Meena Krishnamsetty. They don't have any business relationships with any of the companies mentioned in this article and they didn't receive compensation (other than from Insider Monkey and Seeking Alpha) to write this article.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

If Buffett Liked Tech, Here's What He'd Buy

Warren Buffett used to define a "margin of safety" as a company that was trading close to - or even below - "breakup value."

Of course, that metric doesn't work as well today - especially in the parts of the tech sector that we like to focus on: You just aren't going to find many high-growth companies trading at bargain-basement levels.

But with U.S. firms sitting on a record $1.7 trillion in cash, you can find some name-brand tech firms whose cash reserves can cover a decent portion of their share price - creating a nice "margin of safety" as we move into the fall. (Good timing, considering everything that's happening - or not happening - in D.C. right now.)

The Road to Wealth Is Paved by Tech...

The technology sector creates more billionaires than almost any other sector of the markets.

Tech outperforms real estate, gold, commodities, manufacturing, transportation... it even gives oil and energy a run for the money.

And right now, tech is set to get dramatically more lucrative.

Complex layers of "disruptive" technologies, paradigm-shifting changes, are coming together to create some of the biggest wealth-building opportunities of the last 50 years.

With Strategic Tech Investor, you won't miss a single one of these incredible opportunities. Editor Michael Robinson is one of the most visionary experts in the tech world.

Readers who followed his rare-earth metals recommendations, for instance, would've seen cumulative gains of 990% in just 16 months.

I like to refer to these as "Cash is King" tech stocks.

So let's look at three that even Buffett, who typically avoids this sector, would consider...

Why Cash Is Important Now

If you've followed Strategic Tech Investor, you know I put a lot of stock in my five-part strategy for finding high-growth stocks at the lowest-possible levels of risk.

That strategy is why, in fact, that I believe "the road to wealth is paved by tech."

And Rule No. 1 - which tells us that "great companies have great operations" - addresses this very situation. That rule tells us to focus on cash flow and profit margins and is the key part of a system that I've used for decades.

Companies that are sitting on a lot of cash provide a big margin of safety against a market decline. They give investors confidence that the company is on the right track and will succeed over the long haul. And that's why investors are less likely to sell in a panic at the first sign of trouble.

This isn't all about sentiment, either. Solid cash flow is a great way to lower what I consider to be the "true cost" of buying a stock. There's even a simple mathematical formula for figuring this out. Simply take the stock's "sticker price" - what it's selling for - and subtract its net cash per share.

Hot Dividend Companies To Buy For 2014

Let me show you what I mean.

Let's say a stock is trading at $24 a share. But the company holds net cash of $6 a share. That means that your true cost is closer to $18.

In other words, if the company liquidated tomorrow (outside of bankruptcy court), as a shareholder you're entitled to that $6 a share because it's your money.

It's just like getting the stock at a 25% discount.

And that's an implied margin of safety.

And here's another great thing about cash-rich tech leaders. They can use that money to do three things that will only benefit you as a shareholder.

The company can:

Pay dividends or increase the payout ratio. Buy back shares, a move that can push the stock higher on its own. And buy other firms in a way that can improve future growth and help the company expand into new markets.

With strong cash flow as our guide, let's take a look three tech firms that have a huge amount of cash on hand already - and are most likely to add to their war chest with the hefty cash flows they generate.

The Internet Killer

Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) is a big-cap tech leader that throws off a tremendous amount of cash. Then again, it's a leader in the web-based technology that is integral to today's tech-centric world.

The company sells the routers, switches, servers, optical components, and wireless controllers used to access the web and manage its content.

As a result, Cisco is targeting the high-growth market for the "Internet of Everything" (IoE). Simply stated, the Internet of Everything means that nearly every single object in the world will be connected via wireless chips and sensors to a vast computer network. Cisco CEO John Chambers says the IoE market will create a global supply chain that will generate $14 trillion in profits.

Cisco already has strong financials. For fiscal 2013, Cisco's earnings rose 24% on a year-over-year basis to $10 billion. And the fiscal year's fourth quarter represented the 10th in a row with record earnings, which were up 18%.

More to the point, Cisco generates about $8.6 billion in free cash flow (FCF) a year. It's now sitting on net cash of $34 billion, or about $6.30 a share. With a share price of $24.30, that gives us a "true cost" of about $18 - and a 25% "safety margin."

Chambers is using some of that cash to flesh out Cisco's franchise. He recently agreed to buy cybersecurity firm Sourcefire Inc. (Nasdaq: FIRE) for $2.7 billion. Last week, Chambers announced Cisco is buying WHIPTAIL, a maker of solid-state computer memory systems, for roughly $415 million.

Hard Cash at "Mr. Softy"

Another cash-rich heavyweight - and one that's been making headlines of late - is Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT).

Flush with cash, Microsoft recently said it's buying Nokia Corp's (ADR) (NYSE: NOK) devices and services business for $5.2 billion plus $2.2 billion in licensing fees.

The idea is simple - Microsoft is way behind in the mobile tech sector and needs to make a bold move to become a serious player. And now that CEO Steve Ballmer has announced his retirement, the software giant is about to embark on a turnaround plan. I expect that to include more acquisitions into areas with much greater growth than the stagnant PC market.

Microsoft has strong financials and a fortress balance sheet. In its recently concluded fiscal year, Microsoft reported an impressive $21.86 billion in net profits on revenue of $77.85 billion. The firm knows how to make a buck - it boasts operating margins of 34% and a return on equity (ROE) of 30%.

Talk about a mountain of cash...

Microsoft brings in $19 billion a year in free cash flow. At the end of June, it had nearly $60 billion in net cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. With a market cap of $273 billion, Microsoft trades at about $32.65. But it has net cash per share of $7.23. That lowers our true cost of buying the stock to $25.42 - creating a 20% margin of safety.

Mega-caps aren't the only companies that generate a lot of cash.

As Seen on TV

Take a look at Ambarella Inc. (Nasdaq: AMBA), a fast-moving, small-cap firm that is focused on the rapidly emerging market for ultra-high-definition televisions (UHDTV).

The company specializes in making semiconductors for high-resolution video cameras used in sports, which will be an early adopter of this technology that makes video images at least four times sharper than today's UHDTV.

Ambarella recently introduced a new chip for the consumer-digital-video market for what are called "4K cameras." The firm is already known for supplying chips used in wearable high-def video cameras like those that skiers attach to their helmets.

Founded in 2004, the firm went public in October 2012 at $6 a share. Today, the stock trades at about $19.90 a share - a 231% gain. Focused on a growth market and generating so much cash flow, Ambarella still has plenty of room to run.

With a market cap of $548.73 million, the company has zero debt and is sitting on nearly $190 million in cash. That means Ambarella has a net cash per share of $6.89. So your true cost of buying this stock is closer to $13 a share - meaning you can look at the current share price as "hiding" a 25% "discount" ... or a 25% "margin of safety."

So we've given you three cash-rich companies that also feature good businesses. That should translate into some big growth potential in the long run - and a limited downside during the uncertain stretch ahead.

And that's a formula that you have to like a lot ...

Friday, October 11, 2013

5 Pillars of the New Financial Reality

middle aged man looking stressed over financesAlamy By now, most people recognize that the world of personal financial has undergone some drastic changes. Money expert and author Matt Rettick says Americans need to recognize that things will never go back to the way they were before the financial crisis. "The old fear used to be that you'd die right after you retired and you wouldn't have a chance to enjoy it," Rettick says. "The new fear is that you'll outlive your money." The days of relying on a combination of a pension from your lifelong employer and a reasonable Social Security check to support you in your old age are over. In fact, Rettick says, we're fast approaching a time when the average person could spend more years in retirement than working. His new book -- "All the Rules Have Changed: What You Must Do to Succeed in the New Financial Reality" -- delves into the new financial order. We recently talked to Rettick about the new financial strategies and how people need to adjust their plans in light of them. 5 Pillars of Financial Security and How to Replace Them 1. Pension plans are disappearing. "At their peak in 1983, there were 175,000 pension plans," says Rettick. "Today there are less than 25,000 pension plans and many of those are frozen so that new employees cannot join them. People are living 30 years on their pensions instead of two or three years, and stock market returns haven't been high enough, so many of these plans are insolvent." The solution: Rettick says you should create your own pension plan by setting up annuities for your retirement. 2. Social Security is unstable. "Since 2010 we've been paying out more money in Social Security benefits than we're taking in through payroll taxes," says Rettick. "Social Security will only become solvent if we decrease benefits or increase taxes. More than likely, they'll increase the age limits in the future." The solution: If you're under 40, you should act as if Social Security won't be there at all when you retire; if it is, then you'll have some bonus income in retirement. If you're older than 40, Rettick recommends working with a Social Security expert to help you decide when it's the right time to trigger your benefits. "If you take them at 62, you'll get 25 percent less than if you wait until you're 66, and if you wait until you're 70 you'll get 25 percent more than you will if you start at 66." 3. The stock market is volatile and unpredictable. "Twenty or 30 years ago, it was a big deal if the stock market moved 20 or 30 points in a day, but now we can see it move 400 points in a day," Rettick says. "The old rule used to be buy and hold because if you hang in there the market will come back. But depending on your age and whether you're in retirement, the impact of that strategy could be devastating." The solution: Be well diversified, says Rettick, and follow the "investment rule of 100." The rule of 100 says that you take the age to which you could potentially live (100) and subtract the age you are now. The percentage of your assets matching the age you are now should be invested in safe, no-risk, guaranteed accounts; the remainder should be invested in stocks. So, for example, if you're 60, then 60 percent of your investments should be no-risk and up to 40 percent should be in stocks. "Reducing losses is extremely important once you're over age 50," says Rettick. 4. Home equity is unreliable. "The three legs of your financial plan used to be a retirement plan such as a pension or a 401(k), Social Security, and personal savings," says Rettick. "For most people, their home represented a huge percent of their assets. We all saw what happened to those assets during the housing crisis, and even though housing values are going up again, 10 percent of homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages." The solution: Rettick recommends paying off your mortgage as soon as possible so that you own a safe and secure asset and are not in danger of losing your home. He also suggests that you don't rely on your home for cash flow the way some people did before the housing bubble burst. "Depend more on your savings and investments than on your home," he says. 5. People are living longer. "The majority of people feel they aren't ready for retirement and expect to be worse off in retirement," says Rettick. "The reality is that you need to be prepared to live for 20 or 30 years in retirement." The solution: Rettick recommends getting appropriate investment advice to avoid the erosion of your savings due to inflation, to avoid losses, and to prepare for long-term care costs. Common sense still applies "People can handle the new reality if they save more and spend less," Rettick says. "Everyone needs to eliminate debt as soon as possible and put the burden of the future in their own hands, ideally saving 10 to 15 percent of their income for retirement."

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Cerulli: Institutional Market to Grow to $19 Trillion in 5 Years

A new report from Cerulli Associates projects the U.S. institutional market will increase 30% to $19 trillion in assets within the next five years.

The Boston-based research firm defines the institutional market based on the identity of the end client, classifying assets as institutional only when the asset manager’s end client is an institution.

“As of year-end 2012, the institutional market held $14.5 trillion in assets under management,” Michele Guiditta, associate director at Cerulli, said in a statement. “And, with more than $4 trillion in assets, private defined contribution remains the largest U.S. institutional market.”

“The shift from defined benefit to defined contribution is continuing,” added John Hsu, senior analyst at Cerulli. “DC markets continue to grow faster than DB markets and we anticipate that to continue.”

The report, titled “Institutional Markets 2013: Gaining Market Share as Shifting Portfolio Construction Presents New Opportunities and Challenges,” also finds that due to risk parameters in the institutional market, traditional asset managers should expand their capabilities in alternatives to continue to grow assets under management, as the firm expects the sourcing of larger alternative allocations from traditional equity and fixed income.

Asset managers should also continue to improve their risk measurement and performance attribution capabilities, it notes, in order to satisfy the growing reporting needs from consultants and the institutions they serve.

It also notes the opportunity for asset managers who have shifted their focus to DC to leverage existing relationships with corporate DB plan sponsors, allowing them to win DC mandates and potentially extend to custom target-date solutions.

---

Check out Next-Gen Advisor Crisis: Numbers to Shrink by 2017, Cerulli Says on ThinkAdvisor.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Best and Worst Buys of October 2013

October is a good time to find deals on a variety of items, especially warm-weather gear that's now on clearance. However, many of the things on holiday wish lists won't be marked down until Black Friday in November. So don't be in a rush to start your holiday shopping yet. But take a look at what you can expect to find on sale this month -- and what you should wait a little longer to purchase.

SEE ALSO: Best Places for Fall Travel Deals What's on sale now ...

Camping gear. Outdoor stores such as REI and Cabela's mark down warm-weather gear during end-of-season clearance sales this month. For example, REI has marked down mesh tents, pop-up chairs and open-air coverings as much as 70%, according to dealnews.com.

Denim. Jeans that didn't sell during the back-to-school shopping season in late summer go on sale in October, says Brett Billick, Deals2Buy.com senior director.

Grills. With the winter months approaching, you'll find discounts of up to 50% on grills, says Offers.com Vice President Howard Schaffer. In many parts of the country, the weather still is nice enough to cook outdoors, so you won't have to wait until next year to use a grill that you can score at a great price.

Halloween items. The best time to buy costumes and decorations is right after Halloween, when these items are marked down 50% to 90%. But if you need to outfit your trick-or-treaters for this Halloween, you'll find markdowns of 30% to 50% the week before the holiday at stores such as Carter's, Meijer, Target and BuyCostumes.com, according to dealnews.com.

Patio furniture. Expect discounts on patio furniture of 50% or more, Schaffer says. However, the selection may be small now that summer is over, and retailers have been marking prices down on their inventory over the past couple of months.

School supplies. If you didn't get everything your kids need at the start of school, now is a good time to find school supplies at steep discounts in the bargain bins at retailers such as Target, according to dealnews.com.

Travel. Because fall is shoulder season -- the period between summer and the holidays when fewer people are traveling – you can find deals in October and early November on flights to the Caribbean, Europe and many places in the U.S., says Anne Banas, executive editor of SmarterTravel.com. And you can take advantage of discounted vacation packages that include airfare and accommodations.

Vacuums. Many sources suggest buying a new vacuum cleaner in the spring. But dealnews.com has found by searching its monthly archive of sales data that there are almost twice as many good deals on these handy home appliances in October and November. Discounts range from 25% to 40%.

Wait a little longer to buy ...

Cars. You might have heard that fall is a good time to buy a car because it's the start of a new car season. This once was true, but new models arrive on car lots throughout the year now, says Kiplinger's car expert Jessica Anderson. She recommends waiting until December to find the best deal on the previous year's models and to have more negotiating room than normal on new-model prices because dealers will be anxious to make both monthly and annual sales goals.

10 Best Performing Stocks To Watch Right Now

Cold-weather apparel. The best deals will appear in January. But if you're desperate for a new coat, try to at least wait until November when retailers will offer some deals around Black Friday.

HDTVs and laptops. Hold out until November or December to do your TV or computer shopping. The real deals will appear Black Friday and continue into the weeks before Christmas.

Video games. Offers.com's Schaffer says that retailers know that video games are hot holiday gift items, so don't expect to see any discounts on them now. Wait until December for better prices. To maximize savings, however, Schaffer recommends holding off until January.



Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Will BlackBerry Find a Buyer?

With shares of BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) trading around $8, is BBRY an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock's Movement

BlackBerry is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software, and services, it provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to information such as email, voice, instant messaging, SMS, Internet, intranet-based applications, and browsing. Its products and services feature the BlackBerry wireless solution, the Research In Motion Wireless Handheld product line, the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet, software development tools, and other software and hardware.

BlackBerry's takeover bid from Fairfax Financial Holdings is looking even less certain, as Reuters reports that BlackBerry is in talks with Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and SAP (NYSE:SAP) about selling itself as a whole or in parts. Of particular interest to buyers is BlackBerry's patent portfolio and server network. Expressions of interest from potential buyers are due by early next week. Fairfax's $4.7 billion bid for BlackBerry has come under question due to financing concerns.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

BlackBerry stock has been part of a disastrous downtrend in the last several years. The stock is now trading near lows for the year and looks ready to test last year's lows. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, BlackBerry is trading below its key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

BBRY

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of BlackBerry options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

BlackBerry Options

79.02%

50%

49%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

October Options

Steep

Average

November Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let's take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on BlackBerry's stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for BlackBerry look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-308.89%

83.84%

178.41%

-96.08%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-45.02%

9.37%

-35.97%

-47.21%

Earnings Reaction

-0.99%

-27.76%

-0.89%

-22.73%

BlackBerry has seen mixed earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been disappointed with BlackBerry's recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has BlackBerry stock done relative to its peers, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), and sector?

BlackBerry

Apple

Google

Nokia

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-32.80%

-7.47%

22.53%

67.22%

18.17%

BlackBerry has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

BlackBerry provides innovative wireless communication products to consumers and companies worldwide. It is being reported that the company is in talks with several technology companies as the deal with Fairfax Financial Holdings may be falling through. The stock has not done well in recent years and is now trading near lows for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been decreasing which has disappointed investors in the company. Relative to its peers and sector, BlackBerry has been a weak year-to-date performer. STAY AWAY from BlackBerry for now.

Monday, October 7, 2013

5 Best China Stocks To Buy For 2014

This year has been rough for commodities. Gold is down roughly 25% in 2013, as is corn, while silver is off an astounding 35% through the end of June. But there has been one exception to this trend: energy, particularly oil.

Crude oil has proven more resilient and less volatile this year (depending on which benchmark you use, it is either up or down in the single digits) than most other commodities. There are three main factors behind this�:

Higher interest rates hit precious metals hard. While the rate regime impacts all commodities, it typically has a more pronounced impact on precious metals. The big losses in gold and silver can largely be attributed to rising real rates. To the extent rates rise in the context of a normalizing economy, the impact is likely to be more muted for energy commodities.Fears about slower Chinese growth have hit industrial metals. Losses in industrial metals ��like copper, down 12% year-to-date ��have been driven by fears over Chinese growth. As infrastructure building in that economy has accounted for much of the marginal demand for industrial metals, these commodities are hyper-sensitive to any perceived change in China�� appetite for raw materials. However, the demand for oil tends to be tied to the global economy, rather than a single country. In addition, a Chinese rebalancing toward consumption may actually benefit oil as more middle-income consumers purchase cars .A drop in supply. While surging North American production has captured investor imagination, what has gone largely unnoticed is the drop in supply from other sources. Heightened unrest in the Middle East and Africa, coupled with increasing sanctions against Iran, has resulted in big drops in production and exports. For example, sanctions on Iranian crude have caused exports to drop from over two million barrels per day to approximately 700,000 bpd, basically negating the surge in North American production. We��e seen similar, though less dramatic drops from other OPEC producers, inclu! ding Nigeria and Libya, both of whom are struggling with their own geopolitical issues.With violence escalating in Syria and renewed unrest in Egypt, investors are increasingly worried about more supply disruptions, a fear reflected in risk metrics such as The Alliant Oil & Gas Country Risk Index. This is important as rising levels of geopolitical risk in oil producing countries have historically correlated with higher crude prices .

5 Best China Stocks To Buy For 2014: Spreadtrum Communications Inc.(SPRD)

Spreadtrum Communications, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops, and markets baseband processor and RF transceiver solutions for wireless communications and mobile television markets. It offers a portfolio of integrated baseband processor solutions that support a range of wireless communications standards, including global system for mobile communication (GSM), general packet radio service (GPRS), enhanced data rates for GSM evolution (EDGE), time division synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA), and high speed packet access (HSPA), as well as offer an array of multimedia capabilities, such as MP3 digital audio playback, touch screen, JAVA acceleration, digital camera support, motion JPEG, MPEG4, AVS and H.264 digital video playback, and 64-channel polyphonic ringtone playback. The company also provides single-chip CMOS multi-mode RF transceivers that perform across various standards covering GSM/GP RS, EDGE, wideband code division multiple access, TD-SCDMA, and high speed uplink/downlink packet access. In addition, it designs, develops, and markets a CMMB-based channel demodulator and audio/video decoder processor solution for the mobile television market. The company sells its products directly, as well as through distributors to brand manufacturers, independent design houses, and original design manufacturers primarily in China, Hong Kong, and Macau. Spreadtrum Communications, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    What: Shares of smartphone chip maker Spreadtrum Communications (NASDAQ: SPRD  ) popped 13% today after Chinese state-owned company Tsinghua Unigroup agreed to acquire it for about $1.8 billion.

  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    What: Shares of Chinese smartphone chip maker Spreadtrum Communications (NASDAQ: SPRD  ) surged 17% today after Tsinghua University, through its subsidiary Tsinghua Unigroup, offered to acquire it for $1.4 billion.

  • [By Dan Radovsky]

    Chinese semiconductor maker Spreadtrum (NASDAQ: SPRD  ) has received a buyout offer valued at up to $1.5 billion from Tsinghua Unigroup, a subsidiary of Chinese government-owned Tsinghua Holdings, Spreadtrum announced today.

5 Best China Stocks To Buy For 2014: Perfect World Co. Ltd.(PWRD)

Perfect World Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, operation, and licensing of online games primarily in the People?s Republic of China, the United States, and the Rest of Asia. It develops online games based on its game engines and game development platforms. The company?s 3D massively multiplayer online role playing games (MMORPGs) include Perfect World, an adventure and fantasy game with traditional Chinese settings; Legend of Martial Arts, an adventure story of Chinese swordsmen set in an ancient kingdom; and Perfect World II, which is set in a similar content and graphic background as Perfect World. It also offers Zhu Xian that is based on martial arts focused adventure set in a fantasy world; Chi Bi, a war story developed based on ancient Chinese history known as the Three Kingdoms; Hot Dance Party, a 3D online casual game; Pocketpet Journey West, a 3D MMORPG based on the classical novel of Chinese literature, Journey to the West ; Battle of the Immortals, a mysterious adventure, which enables game players to travel between eastern and western cultures, and adventures in historic sites and turf wars; and Fantasy Zhu Xian, a 2D turn-based MMORPG based on the Internet fantasy novel Zhu Xian. It also involves in the production and distribution of films, as well as television advertising activities. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CRWE]

    Perfect World Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:PWRD), a leading online game developer and operator based in China, will release unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2012, after the market closes on Monday, August 27, 2012.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Before markets open Tuesday morning we are scheduled to hear results from Perfect World Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: PWRD), Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN), Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) which announced a new video app today, Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE: BBY) which is included in our preview of this week�� results from retailers, Dick�� Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL).

10 Best Value Stocks To Own Right Now: Clean Diesel Technologies Inc.(CDTI)

Clean Diesel Technologies, Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of emissions control systems and products for heavy duty diesel and light duty vehicle markets. The company operates in two divisions, Heavy Duty Diesel Systems and Catalyst. The Heavy Duty Diesel Systems division designs and manufactures verified exhaust emissions control solutions that are used to reduce exhaust emissions created by on-road, off-road, and stationary diesel and alternative fuel engines, including propane and natural gas. Its products include closed crankcase ventilation systems, diesel oxidation catalysts, diesel particulate filters, Platinum Plus fuel-borne catalysts, ARIS selective catalytic reduction reagents, catalyzed wire mesh diesel particulate filters, alternative fuel products, and exhaust accessories. This division offers its products for original equipment manufacturers of heavy duty diesel equipment, such as mining equipment, vehicles, generator sets, and construction equipment, as well as retrofit customers consisting of school districts, municipalities, and other fleet operators. The Catalyst division produces catalyst formulations using its proprietary MPC technology for gasoline, diesel, and natural gas induced emissions. Its products comprise catalysts for gasoline engines, diesel engines, and energy applications. This division supplies its catalysts to automotive manufacturers and large heavy duty diesel engine manufacturers. The company sells its products through a network of distributors and dealers, and its direct sales force worldwide. Clean Diesel Technologies, Inc. is based in Ventura, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CRWE]

    Clean Diesel Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:CDTI), a cleantech emissions control company, will be a presenter at the 3rd Annual Craig-Hallum Capital Group Alpha Select Conference. The presentation is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 27, 2012 at the Sentry Centers in New York.

5 Best China Stocks To Buy For 2014: iSoftStone Holdings Limited(ISS)

iSoftStone Holdings Limited provides various information technology (IT) services and solutions in the Greater China and internationally. It offers an integrated suite of IT services and solutions, including consulting and solution services, IT services, and business process outsourcing (BPO) services. The company provides a range of consulting services for an overall engagement or discrete consulting services in conjunction with other services. It also develops industry-specific solutions, including treasury management, cash management, property and casualty insurance core, financial holding company business analysis, trust company core, and banking risk management solutions for banking, financial services, and insurance industries; supply chain management, enterprise information portals, business intelligence, business process integration, and management and e-commerce solutions for energy, transportation, and public sectors; mobile and embedded technology, next generati on platforms, business intelligence functionality, and network security products for the communications industry. In addition, the company offers various IT services consisting of application development and maintenance, research and development, and infrastructure and software services. Further, it provides a range of BPO services, such as securities trade processing services for the investment banking industry; digitization and archiving of policyholder information, as well as account processing and customer service for insurance industry; and cross-industry BPO services comprising finance and accounting, customer care, and human resources. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

5 Best China Stocks To Buy For 2014: China Gerui Advanced Materials Group Limited(CHOP)

China Gerui Advanced Materials Group Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of cold-rolled narrow strip steel products in the People's Republic of China. The company converts steel manufactured by third parties into thin steel sheets and strips. It sells its products directly to its customers in a range of industries, including food and industrial packaging, construction and household decorations materials, electrical appliances, and telecommunications wires and cables industries. The company was formerly known as Golden Green Enterprises Limited and changed its name to China Gerui Advanced Materials Group Limited in December 2009. China Gerui Advanced Materials Group Limited is based in Zhengzhou, China.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Having the alternatives talk with clients

Clients are more open than ever before to alternative investments, but talking to them about the asset classes and strategies can still be daunting for advisers.

A trio of top financial advisers shared their best tips on talking to clients about alternatives Tuesday at the InvestmentNews Alternative Investments Conference in Chicago.

Seven out of 10 investors would consider alternative investments if their adviser recommended them, up from 35% a year ago and 19% in 2011, a recent Natixis Global Asset Management SA survey found.

“You have to speak English to your clients and not sound like Charlie Brown's teacher,” said Ed Butowsky, managing partner of Chapwood Capital Investment Management LLC.

It's important to focus on how alternatives fit inside a portfolio, he said.

“Any investment by itself is not a great investment,” Mr. Butowsky said. “What matters is how it works in the total package.”

To really strike home the point of how alternatives can affect a portfolio, Mr. Butowsky uses a chart that shows the client's current alternative-free portfolio and how the same portfolio would have behaved historically with an alternative fund, or funds, added to the mix.

“One key is to tell them the probability of loss based on historical data,” he said. “Then, based on how much money they have, show them how much real money is at risk, based on historical data.”

While high-net-worth investors might already be familiar with alternatives, for the mass affluent, it's a whole new concept, said Tom Meyer, chief executive of Meyer Capital Group.

“This is all new to them,” he said. “We're dealing with people that basically, instead of having a Bible by their bed, they have a copy of John Bogle's book,” Mr. Meyer said, referring to the founder of The Vanguard Group Inc.

One of the most important priorities for Mr. Meyer's clients is that the alternatives are liquid, which generally means they're offered in a mutual fund.

“Clients appreciate the strategy, but they appreciate that they could push a button and get their money back more,” he said.

Jim Ball, principal at Ball Financial Services Co., tries to stay away from talking to clients about such topics as alpha and beta, and instead focuses on what's going to keep them from panicking and getting out of the markets.

“We need to do whatever it takes to keep them invested,” he said. “Alternatives are designed to put some brackets around a range of outcomes so! clients don't get out in 2008 and miss the three years of gains that followed.”

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Shares of Apple Rise on New Guidance (AAPL)

Shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) soared on Monday morning following an update to the company’s revenue guidance.

On Friday, Apple launched both its iPhone 5s and its iPhone 5c. Over the weekend, the company sold 9 million iPhones, while some analysts expected to only see around 5 million iPhones sold.

Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer reported that he now expects to see revenue on the higher end of the previously estimated range of $34 billion to $37 billion. Analysts expect to see revenue of $36.11 billion.

Margins are expected to be between 36% and 37%.

Apple shares were up $29.14, or 6.23%, during pre-market trading Monday. The stock is down 12% YTD.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Hooters’ most embarrassing moments over 30 years

It was 30 years ago this Friday when the first Hooters restaurant opened in Clearwater, Fla., to an utterly underwhelmed public. Business was lousy, and the six co-founders had just enough business savvy between them to be dangerous – to themselves. Who could have guessed that Hooters, which ultimately came to be known for its scantily-clad waitresses serving chicken wings, would become a near $1 billion global brand with 410 restaurants in 27 countries. Certainly not co-founder Ed Droste, 62, a one-time real estate broker who shared with USA TODAY his Top 10 most embarrassing moments over the past three decades at Hooters. To further hype its three decades, each domestic Hooters store will award one-year's worth of free wings to one lucky guest on Friday evening. One thing's certain: No one ever accused Droste – or Hooters – of being boring.

The Top 10 Hooters memories that most redden his face:

• Forming Hooters on April Fool's Day: As an appropriate symbol of management's utter ignorance about how to run a business, Hooters was incorporated as a business on April Fool's Day, April 1, 1983. "We were six clueless knuckleheads who called ourselves the Hooters Six," says Droste. The reason these six buddies founded the restaurant in the first place: "We wanted to open a neighborhood joint with a beach theme — that we couldn't get kicked out of."

• Serenading first Hooters Girl. Droste made an informal bet with his business partners that he could hire, as the very first Hooters Girl, the winner of the Jose Cuervo Bikini Contest that was taking place nearby. He puttered over in a motor boat to where the contest was taking place, jumped out of the boat and swam over to the contest winner (Lynne Austin) "with my business card in a plastic bag." He handed her his card. He begged. And begged some more. It took a while – but after some serious begging on his part, she finally agreed.

CHANGES: Hooters tries surviving middle age with makeover

PHOTOS: ! The past and future of Hooters

• Learning the ropes. The first day that Hooters opened, Droste had to call a friend who owned a Chicken Unlimited to come over to the restaurant to show the crew how to light the fryers. It gets worse. The restaurant also was stretching the law on its first day of operations. "I paid two fake cops to bust one of my partners because we didn't even have our beer license yet," he says.

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• Steering-in traffic. Business was slow at first, so Droste did what any good owner would do: He rented a chicken costume. He then dodged around in local traffic, desperate to steer-in cars. It tripled sales — from two customers to six. That was really better than it seemed, he recalls, "because I'd been picking up the tab for the table of two."

• Going overboard. Droste spotted a partially sunken boat with a bright white hull facing tons of traffic on the main causeway in Clearwater not far from the Hooters restaurant. For a PR stunt, he swam out with some orange spray paint and adorned the entire side of the boat with the word: H-O-O-T-E-R-S. When the local papers all picked up on the stunt, the local marine authority attempted to compel Hooters to pay for the "raising and towing of our boat," recalls Droste. Customer counts "skyrocketed" into double figures, he laughs.

• Installing a tombstone. There was a long history of restaurants failing at the very location where Hooters opened in Clearwater. "I got tired of hearing about all of the concepts that had failed there before us," recalls Droste. So, along with another partner, they installed a graveyard out front with tombstones that listed all of the previous, failed restaurants. So far, Hooters has kept its name off the tombstone.

• Breaking into Playboy. When the very first Hooters Girl, Lynne Austin, was named "Miss July 1986" in Playboy Magazi! ne, the a! rticle and photo-spread were among the first, national showcases for Hooters. Business soared. As a back-handed thank-you for all of the begging that Droste did to get the very first Hooters girl on board – and, perhaps to spur him on to continue begging for more – his business partners presented Droste with a very special gift: kneepads.

• Eating crow. When Hooters expanded into Chicago, its grand opening invite attracted RSVP's from some of the biggest names in town. Just one problem: On what was supposed to be opening day, store construction was only half completed. That didn't stop the party. Big-shot guests all were escorted into the half-constructed restaurant by Hooters Girls, adorned in black-tie. It was dubbed the "World's Largest Replica of a Restaurant." Next, guests were escorted across the street to Walter Payton's Restaurant, where Hooters rolled out a big spread under a sign that read: "Don't Even Expect To Get Food Like This In Our Place."

• Marching on Washington. Guys as Hooters girls almost became a reality in 1995. That's when the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission pressured Hooters to hire guys, too. Hooters organized a mock march on Washington, with 100 Hooters Girls carrying banners with slogans like: "100 Angry Women and it's Not PMS." Ultimately, the federal agency backed off and Hooters got a lot of freebie publicity – and a swarm of job applications.

• Proposing in public. As a Hooters founder, it's no surprise that Droste's little black book of Hooters Girl phone numbers became an envy of the industry. Some he even had on speed dial. That, however, didn't sit so well with Marsha Posey, a top model and former Hooters Girl, who also happened to be his girlfriend. So, under the pretext of presenting a "Manager of the Year Award" — before 2,000 attendees at an annual Hooters Pageant that also was being broadcast live to 400 Hooters restaurants — Droste got down on his knees and proposed. She accepted the proposal! – and ! nixed the black book.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Rieder: Investigative reporting for public radio

When you think of public radio, investigative reporting is hardly one of the first things that comes to mind.

Lots of news, sure, and This American Life, and Wait Wait ... Don't Tell Me! and American Routes.

Hard-hitting, deep-dive watchdog stories, not so much.

But that may change if an intriguing new collaboration bears fruit.

The Center for Investigative Reporting, a non-profit news organization that does what its name suggests, and Public Radio Exchange (PRX), which distributes content to public radio stations, are joining forces to launch Reveal, which they hope will morph into a weekly, hour-long show packed with powerful journalism.

The program's pilot episode debuted this week, airing on more than 100 stations and in eight of the nation's top 10 markets.

Jake Shapiro, PRX's executive director, says the show is designed to "fill a gap in the public radio landscape." Its mission is to "take a longer, deeper look at the stories that matter most," says Joaquin Alvarado, the center's chief strategy officer.

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This is very cool for a number of reasons. For one thing, the advent of a new source of investigative reporting is always welcome news. And the partnership highlights a number of encouraging trends that have emerged in the midst of the often-depressing news about traditional news organizations.

As many newspapers, facing crushing financial challenges and brandishing smaller staffs, have cut back on accountability reporting, exciting new ventures have arisen to help plug the gap.

While the Berkeley, Calif,.-based Center for Investigative Reporting has been around since 1977, it has mushroomed in recent years as non-profit journalism has come to the fore, and now has a staff of 75. It has transformed dramatically under the leadership of former Philadelphia Inquirer Editor Robert Rosenthal.

Two of its hallmarks are collabora! tion with other news outlets and extensive use of the opportunities afforded by a multiplatform world to broaden its reach and heighten its impact. Teaming up with PRX exhibits both of these tendencies. CIR will dramatically expand its presence on public radio, and both organizations are highly attuned to the digital space.

Sophisticated, revelatory watchdog journalism is critical in a democracy. Here's hoping Reveal becomes a potent force.

So how did this marriage come about? Shapiro says it happened "fortuitously and serendipitously" through a connection between Alvarado and John Barth, PRX's managing director. They sensed there was a kinship between the organizations and that working together would provide an enormous opportunity for both. Things happened quickly after that.

Rather than wait until they were ready to do a full-fledged launch, the partners decided to put out a prototype and get a sense of how it went over with the stations and potential funders. So far, the positive feedback "has been beyond what we had been hoping for," Shapiro says.

Investigative reporting is an extremely time-consuming proposition, and coming up with fresh top-shelf material every week poses a challenge (the planners hope to go weekly sometime next year). That's why the program will include exposés not just from the center but also from other non-profit investigative news outlets and public radio stations that want to play. "If we had to do it all, we'd kill ourselves," Alvarado says.

The partners are using existing funds so far, but if the endeavor clicks, they anticipate it will be financed by a mix that will include philanthropy and sponsorships. The pilot was free, and it hasn't been decided whether stations will be charged in the future.

Rather than devote the entire hour to a single topic, the show will feature three big blocks and a number of shorter segments.

The first block will give listeners a behind-the-scenes look at how investigative reporting comes togethe! r, what A! lvarado calls the Law and Order portion of the show. The sense is that this will play quite well with a public radio audience, which tends to have an intense interest in news.

The second will be the main course, a major investigative piece, in effect a radio documentary. The aim, says Alvarado, is to create, for both radio listeners and digital news consumers, "great and compelling storytelling, which is what investigative reporting is all about."

Batting third will be a block focused on following up on earlier stories. What has been the impact? Have laws been changed? Did Reveal move the needle?

Interspersed will be a handful of shorter pieces. The first show, for example, features an interview with a lawyer coordinating the defense of NSA leaker Edward Snowden.

Shapiro, a public radio veteran who is looking forward to sharing Reveal with stations from coast to coast, developed his interest in connecting storytellers and audiences in an unusual way.

During the 1990s, he was a guitarist with the New England indie rock band Two Ton Shoe. His experience trying to "disrupt" the music industry helped propel him toward his current mission, he says.

Years later, Shapiro discovered that one of his songs had gone viral in South Korea. He takes from that a heartening message for creators, whether of music or journalism.

"Every artist," he says, "has a South Korea out there."